Hurricane Polo

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 261450
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 AM MST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
...POLO REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS
A STRONG HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 111.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
Watches will likely be required for the east coast of the Baja
California Peninsula later today.  Interests in portions of
northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Polo.
Watches may be required for that area tonight or early Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 111.7 West. Polo is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the 
northwest is expected today, followed by a northward motion on 
Sunday. By Monday, Polo is expected to turn northeastward and 
approach Baja California Sur.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 
couple of days, however Polo is expected to be a strong hurricane 
when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  A weather station on Socorro Island recently reported a 
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb (27.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the
southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the
day on Monday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja 
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding 
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in 
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be 
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown