Hurricane Polo

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231135
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
600 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
...POLO DRIFTING NORTHWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 101.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 101.4 West. Polo is moving
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A sharp turn to the northwest 
is expected to begin later today followed by a general 
west-northwestward motion later this week and over the weekend. On 
the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the 
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although 
it is forecast to remain offshore.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but
Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during
the next few days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico on Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven