Hurricane Polo

205 
WTPZ32 KNHC 221454
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
900 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026
 
...POLO IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, and
extended the Tropical Storm Watch westward to Playa Perula.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Tecpan de Galeana to  Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 101.6 West.  Polo is drifting
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest 
and west-northwest is expected tonight and Wednesday.  On the 
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next few days, although forecast to 
remain offshore.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening 
is likely through tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible  
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
currently enroute to investigate Polo.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning 
area along the coast of Mexico by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of 
Mexico by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal 
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through 
Thursday.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and 
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch