Tropical Storm Polo

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211452
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026
 
...POLO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 103.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 103.4 West. Polo is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow eastward or
southeastward motion is expected through tonight. However, a sharp
turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected by late
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be
near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Polo is expected to continue to rapidly
intensify, becoming a hurricane by this afternoon and a major
hurricane on Tuesday, with further intensification likely though
midweek.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake