Tropical Storm Karina

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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026
 
Visible satellite imagery indicates that Karina's low-level 
circulation has become totally decoupled from the mid- to 
upper-levels. Deep convection is now limited to a shield to the 
north of the cyclone. A blend of Dvorak Final-T and Current 
Intensity numbers from JTWC plus decreasing objective estimates from 
UW-CIMSS supported lowering the intensity estimate to 60 kt at 18Z. 
Since then, further degradation of the satellite appearance of 
Karina over the past few hours justify lowering the intensity 
estimate to 55 kt for this advisory. 
 
Largely because Karina has become shallow sooner than expected, the 
tropical storm has also moved south of the previous forecast track. 
This has necessitated another southward shift to the NHC forecast, 
which is near the southern extreme of the reliable guidance 
envelope. A further southward adjustment may be necessary in future 
advisories. Karina is now forecast to move generally 
west-northwestward to westward for the next couple of days, steered 
primarily by low-level flow associated with a subtropical high 
centered well north of the tropical storm. This motion will likely 
continue until Karina dissipates in a few days.

Further weakening from southwesterly shear and dry air is likely. 
The official forecast calls for Karina to weaken slightly faster 
than previously shown, but is generally similar and lies near the 
middle of the models, which are all in good agreement. Karina is 
forecast to become post-tropical in 2 days, and based on current 
trends, it could occur sooner than that.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 21.6N 143.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 22.0N 144.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 22.5N 145.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 22.8N 146.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 23.0N 148.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0600Z 23.4N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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