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Tropical Storm Norbert
Public Advisory #16
4 hr & 25 min ago • 500 AM HST
ES
Adviso Publico #16
hace 4 h y 25 min • 500 AM HST
Forecast Advisory #16
4 hr & 25 min ago • 1500 UTC
Forecast Discussion #16
4 hr & 25 min ago • 500 AM HST
ES
Pronóstico Discusión #16
hace 4 h y 25 min • 500 AM HST
Wind Speed Probabilities #16
4 hr & 25 min ago • 1500 UTC
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion
Advisory Number: 16
500 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 131435
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026
Norbert’s overnight burst of convection has faded since the previous
advisory, however proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that a new
convective burst appears to be developing. Water vapor imagery
shows that there is still plenty of dry air surrounding the system.
The latest TAFB Dvorak fix came in with an intensity of 45 kt, and
the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of
37-43 kt. Therefore the initial intensity remains at 45 kt for this
advisory.
The initial motion is estimated to be 285/10 kt. The storm is
expected to move west-northwestward to westward as it moves to the
south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. The track guidance
continue to show good agreement on this general heading of the
cyclone. The current NHC track forecast has been nudged a little
right of the previous forecast track and remains close to the
multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind (GDMI)
ensemble mean.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the short term as
Norbert remains in a marginal environment. The cyclone is contending
with mid-level dry air intrusions and light west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear. After 12 h, the wind shear is expected to
increase, which should result in a generally weakening trend. Around
60 h, the simulated GFS and ECMWF satellite imagery shows that the
cyclone should lose organized deep convection and it is therefore
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low and then dissipated
around 72 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is in line with the
latest guidance including the HCCA and GDMI.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 18.2N 132.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.6N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.4N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 19.7N 142.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 19.8N 145.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown