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Tropical Storm Norbert
Public Advisory #18
2 hr & 40 min ago • 500 PM HST
ES
Adviso Publico #18
hace 2 h y 40 min • 500 PM HST
Forecast Advisory #18
2 hr & 40 min ago • 0300 UTC
Forecast Discussion #18
2 hr & 40 min ago • 500 PM HST
ES
Pronóstico Discusión #18
hace 2 h y 40 min • 500 PM HST
Wind Speed Probabilities #18
2 hr & 40 min ago • 0300 UTC
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion
Advisory Number: 18
500 PM HST Sun Sep 13 2026
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 140247
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 PM HST Sun Sep 13 2026
Recent satellite imagery indicates that moderate vertical wind shear
continues to displace any deep convection east of Norbert's center.
Earlier ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B scatterometer passes depicted an
asymmetric wind field, with peak winds near 40 kt north of the
center. Given these data and Norbert's limited convection, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt.
The initial motion is estimated to be 290/12 kt. The storm is
expected to move west-northwestward to westward as it remains south
of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. The track guidance
continues to show good agreement on the general heading for this
storm through the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is
largely unchanged from the previous advisory, and remains close to
the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean.
While some fluctuations in intensity remain possible in the next 12
h or so, Norbert is forecast to begin a weakening trend that should
persist through the forecast period. The cyclone continues to
contend with moderate westerly to west-northwesterly vertical wind
shear and SHIPS guidance is projecting the shear to gradually
increase after 12-24 h. Simulated GFS and ECMWF satellite imagery
show Norbert struggling to generate any deep convection by 48 h.
Therefore, Norbert is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical
remnant low around Tuesday, then dissipate by Wednesday. The current
NHC intensity forecast remains in line with the corrected
multi-model consensus (HCCA) guidance, which follows the previous
advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 19.2N 135.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.5N 137.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 20.0N 139.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 20.4N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 20.6N 145.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs