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Tropical Storm Norbert
Public Advisory #6
1 hr & 42 min ago • 500 PM HST
ES
Adviso Publico #6
hace 1 h y 42 min • 500 PM HST
Forecast Advisory #6
1 hr & 42 min ago • 0300 UTC
Forecast Discussion #6
1 hr & 42 min ago • 500 PM HST
ES
Pronóstico Discusión #6
hace 1 h y 42 min • 500 PM HST
Wind Speed Probabilities #6
1 hr & 42 min ago • 0300 UTC
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion
Advisory Number: 6
500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026
406
WTPZ44 KNHC 110239
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026
Norbert continues to show a shear pattern on satellite imagery,
with the center located on the western edge of a strong and growing
area of convection. Objective satellite estimates are higher than
the last advisory, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 45
kt. Only slow strengthening is anticipated for the next few
days while Norbert experiences light-to-moderate westerly shear
over warm waters, though close to some dry mid-level air. Thus,
Norbert will likely have some challenges developing an inner core,
probably preventing any rapid changes in the near-term. Model
guidance is higher than the last cycle overall, and the new
intensity forecast is raised slightly from the previous one. The
long-range intensity is a challenge given the large latitudinal
spread in the track guidance as well as the possibility of
increasing shear.
The tropical storm's motion remains westward at 12 kt. A mid-
level ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast to build westward
in tandem with Norbert during the next few days, keeping the
cyclone moving westward to west-northwestward. A south-of-west
track is possible by next week, depending on the future orientation
of the ridge and the position of Norbert. The ECMWF has been
showing this west-southwest motion for a few runs now, and with the
Google DeepMind now in closer agreement, the official forecast is
shifted southward at long range. Otherwise few changes were made
to the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 16.4N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.5N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 16.6N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.9N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 17.9N 131.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.1N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 18.3N 137.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake