Hurricane Lowell

ZCZC HFOTCDCP4 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

A little bit of erosion of the convection has occurred near
Lowell's eastern eyewall this morning, possibly due to mid-level
shear and intrusion of dry air. Regardless, Lowell is still a
powerful category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds
estimated to be 130 kt. The latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers
from HFO and JTWC are 6.5/127 kt, and the UW-CIMSS DPRINT estimate,
which has been tracking well with Lowell's recent intensity
changes, is around 130 kt. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission
is scheduled for later this morning.
 
Lowell is moving just north of due west, or 275/6 kt, as weak
mid-level ridging barely holds on to the north. A deep-layer low
located about 600 n mi northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
forecast to dip southwestward over the next couple of days, further
eroding the ridge, and causing Lowell to make a sharp northward to
north-northeastward turn by Sunday and Monday. The guidance is
coming into better focus on Lowell's path near the Hawaiian Islands,
with the bulk of the models taking the center 100-200 n mi to the
west of Kauai County in about 72 hours. An important note for this
forecast, however, is that the HCCA corrected consensus and
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI), which have both been
performing well for this storm, lie along the eastern side of the
guidance envelope. This required a slight eastward nudge to the
official forecast between 60-96 hours. After passing the main
Hawaiian Islands after day 3, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the
west-northwest and slow down as weak ridging again builds in north
of the cyclone.
 
The official intensity forecast shows a steady intensity for the 
next 24 hours while the hurricane remains in a low-shear environment 
and over water temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius, but 
fluctuations up or down will be possible. Deep-layer shear is 
expected to increase in about 48 hours and peak around 72 hours as 
Lowell approaches an upper-level trough to its northwest, which 
should induce a steady weakening trend. The updated NHC intensity 
forecast is a bit lower than the previous prediction, trending 
toward the latest guidance envelope, but it still shows Lowell being 
near or at major hurricane strength when it makes its closest 
approach to the western main Hawaiian Islands and passes across 
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. After 
day 3, the addition of cooler waters and drier air should cause 
Lowell to weaken to a tropical storm by day 5.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell is forecast to move close to the western Hawaiian Islands 
late Monday and Monday night. There is a risk of storm surge and 
wind impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, 
early next week and watches will likely be issued later today. 
Residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and 
follow advice from local officials.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the
Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next
week. Periods of heavy rain may produce locally significant flash
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 13.4N 162.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 13.8N 163.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 14.6N 164.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 15.7N 164.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 17.3N 163.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 19.7N 163.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 22.5N 162.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 26.7N 163.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 28.3N 166.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
NNNN