Tropical Storm Hernan

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 140232
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Convection associated with Hernan has fallen apart during the past 
several hours, with only some cirrus debris clouds near the center, 
though there is a large area of thunderstorm well to the northeast. 
 Assuming some spin down of the winds from an earlier scatterometer 
pass, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt.  Gradual weakening is 
anticipated due to continued strong shear, though it could be offset 
somewhat by the system moving across warmer waters. No significant 
changes were made to the intensity forecast, which is near the 
consensus.  Models suggest no deep convection will occur after 24 
hours, so remnant low status is indicated thereafter.

Hernan remains headed slowly southward as a low-level ridge builds 
between Tropical Storms Hernan and Lala.  Hernan should turn 
gradually southwestward and westward due to the ridge between the 
tropical cyclones weakening and the large-scale eastern Pacific 
high providing a more westward steering current.  The latest 
guidance is faster and a bit south of the last cycle, and the 
official forecast is adjusted in that direction.  The global 
models show the cyclone opening up into a trough in about 3 days, 
close to the time the remnants enter the Central Pacific.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 16.8N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 16.2N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 15.8N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 15.4N 134.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 15.0N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1200Z 15.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake