Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 110857
TCDEP3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Discussion Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The bulk of the heavy rainfall is generally on the northern side of 
Rachel, consistent with extratropical transition, as it continues to 
move farther inland. The current intensity of 45 kt is based on a 
blend of a recent ASCAT pass and guidance from the global models, 
with the strongest winds located well to the southeast over the 
northern Gulf of California. 

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/22 kt, and 
the system is expected to accelerate as it moves farther inland. 
The current NHC track was slightly adjusted westward based on the 
global models. Rachel is expected to steadily weaken over land
during the day and dissipate by tonight. However, the remnants of 
Rachel will continue to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over 
parts of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. 
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local 
National Weather Service offices for more information. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of northern 
Baja California and portions of northwestern Mexico, where Tropical 
Storm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also 
possible in eastern Baja California, and portions of northwestern 
Mexico where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.
 
2. Damaging wind gusts, especially in areas of higher terrain, are 
forecast to spread farther inland over portions of northwestern 
Mexico and interior portions of the southwestern United States 
today.
 
3. Heavy rains from the post tropical remnants of Rachel will 
continue to spread from the northern Baja Peninsula into Southern 
California, the Great Basin and portions of the southwestern United 
States. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for 
the potential for significant flash and urban flooding today.
 
4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period 
southerly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja 
California. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in 
some areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet 
above predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to 
worsen this morning as the highest waves associated with Rachel 
coincide with high tides and already elevated water levels. 
Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into early 
next week. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 32.9N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 12H  11/1800Z 36.1N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Blake