Tropical Storm Marie

178 
WTPZ43 KNHC 070243
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026
 
Marie continues to gradually lose strength due to cool waters and
intrusions of dry air. The system still has a ragged eye feature,
but it has been losing definition over the past several hours. In
addition, deep convection around the center is decreasing in
intensity and coverage. The satellite intensity estimates have been
dropping and currently range from about 45 to 65 kt. Based on a
blend of that data and Marie's degraded appearance, the initial wind
speed is lowered to 60 kt, making Marie a tropical storm.
 
The storm is moving slowly northwestward. A general northwestward 
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the 
next few days as Marie moves into a weakness in the subtropical 
ridge toward a mid- to upper-level low. Little change was made to 
the previous track forecast, and this prediction lies on the 
northern side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with HCCA 
and GDMI.

Additional steady weakening is expected as Marie moves over 
progressively cooler waters and into an even drier air mass over 
the next few days. In addition, southwesterly vertical wind shear 
is anticipated to notably increase beginning Tuesday. The 
combination of these factors should lead to Marie degenerating into 
a remnant low, which is now predicted to occur by 60 hours. The NHC 
intensity forecast is similiar to the previous one and generally in 
line with the bulk of the model guidance.

Even though Marie is well away from land, large swells from the 
storm have been affecting portions of the coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula and southern California. These conditions 
will likely continue to cause dangerous beach conditions over the 
next couple of days.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 24.2N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 24.6N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 25.1N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 26.0N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 27.4N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 29.4N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z 31.6N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z 35.3N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi