Hurricane Marie

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040855
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Marie has numerous bands of deep convection in its circulation, but 
the inner core is still not very well defined with a somewhat 
ragged-looking eye.  The system has a prominent upper-level outflow 
pattern, indicative of a low-shear environment.  Remotely-sensed 
intensity estimates are generally in the range of 80-90 kt, and the 
current intensity estimate is kept at 85 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or around 295/8 kt, on 
the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge.  Global 
models depict a 500-mb trough swinging into California in a couple 
of days.  This evolution is likely to result in Marie turning 
toward the northwest in 36 hours or so.  Later in the forecast 
period, the weakening cyclone should move more with the low- to 
mid-level environmental flow and remain well offshore over the 
eastern Pacific.  The official track forecast is nudged a bit to 
the right of the previous one in 3-5 days, toward the latest Google 
DeepMind and corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Marie is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind 
shear for the next several days.  However SSTs are forecast to 
decrease, and the system should be encounter a drier low- to 
mid-level air mass by 48 hours.  Some strengthening is forecast 
while the hurricane remains in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic 
environment through tonight.  Later, a weakening trend is likely as 
Marie encounters less favorable conditions.  The official forecast 
is close to the intensity model consensus.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 19.9N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 20.3N 118.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 21.0N 119.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 21.9N 120.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 22.7N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 23.5N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 24.2N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 25.3N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 27.4N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch