Hurricane Polo

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270245
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Polo during the 
last few hours and found that although it has weakened, the system 
remains a major hurricane. The highest flight-level winds measured 
by the plane on its last pass through Polo were 114 kt, while the 
minimum pressure measured by a dropsonde was 949 mb. Based on these 
data, the intensity of Polo is set at 105 kt. The NOAA aircraft also 
confirmed that Polo's inner core has expanded, and reported that 
the eyewall of the hurricane is open on the north side of the 
circulation.

Polo is still heading northwestward, moving around the western edge 
of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Polo will turn 
northward tomorrow, and then northeastward on Monday as it 
continues to move around the ridge and becomes increasingly 
affected by a mid- to upper-level trough moving in from the 
northwest. The largest source of uncertainty in the forecast 
continues to be the forward speed of Polo as it makes its expected 
northeastward turn between the aforementioned synoptic features. The 
model spread remains higher than unusual between 48 and 72 h, and 
confidence in this portion of the forecast is low. The NHC 
forecast is still generally close to GDM and HCCA, which are on the 
faster end of the guidance, and only minor adjustments were made to 
the official forecast with this advisory.

Continued steady weakening is expected during the next day or two 
given Polo's degraded structure and the expectation that it will 
continue to encounter moderate vertical wind shear and move into a 
drier surrounding environment. However, Polo is still expected to be 
a hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. 
Rapid weakening is likely once the hurricane makes landfall, and 
Polo will likely dissipate over mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. 
 
Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before
it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with
it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United
States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions 
will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm 
surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds. 
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur Sunday night into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 20.7N 113.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 22.4N 114.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 24.2N 113.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 25.8N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 27.6N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 29.7N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky