Hurricane Genevieve

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 262037
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
200 PM MST Sun Jul 26 2026
 
Genevieve continues to rapidly intensify today. A symmetric and warm 
eye has cleared out over the past few hours, and is surrounded by 
very cold cloud tops. A partial Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass 
that became available after the previous advisory showed a 
contracting RMW with peak winds of 103 kt, supporting previous 
evidence of rapid strengthening. The 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB was T6.0/115 kt, and objective 
intensity estimates range from 115-122 kt. Thus, the initial 
intensity has been set to 120 kt for this advisory. 

The major hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest, or   295/12 
kt, along the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States. Genevieve is forecast to continue on a 
northwestward to west-northwestward motion and slow down over the 
next several days as the ridge moves eastward. The latest NHC 
official forecast lies very close to the previous forecast, and 
remains within the tightly clustered ensemble model track data.

Genevieve is expected to strengthen further over the next 12-24 h as 
it remains over very warm sea surface temperatures around 30 C, low 
vertical wind shear and strong upper-level divergence. SHIPS Rapid 
Intensification (RI) guidance and DTOPS continue to show the 
potential for additional rapid intensification in the short-term, 
and the latest NHC official intensity guidance remains near the top 
of the intensity model guidance and close to the HCCA corrected 
consensus aid. However, it is still possible that the peak intensity 
forecast of 130 kt is conservative, given the favorable environment. 
By midweek, Genevieve will begin to encounter cooler sea surface 
temperatures, slightly drier mid-level conditions and a more stable 
environment, supporting steady weakening. Genevieve is now forecast 
to weaken below hurricane intensity at day 5. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 13.9N 110.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 14.8N 111.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 16.0N 113.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 17.0N 114.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 18.3N 117.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 18.9N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 20.4N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  31/1800Z 22.0N 128.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Papin