Hurricane Genevieve

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260851
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
200 AM MST Sun Jul 26 2026

Genevieve is rapidly intensifying.  The subjective Dvorak number 
from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt at 06Z, and D-PRINT numbers from UW-CIMSS 
were around 82 kt at the time, so the intensity was initialized at 
80 kt for 06Z.  Subsequent to 06Z, a ragged eye showed up on IR 
imagery for a few frames with cloud tops colder than -70C completely 
surrounding it.  However, the eye and core still seem to be 
fluctuating and trying to organize, so the 09Z intensity will also 
be 80 kt.

Genevieve has continued moving toward the west-northwest, but a bit 
faster now (300 degrees at 15 kt).  The hurricane is being steered 
by strong mid-tropospheric ridging that extends from the 
southwestern United States to the western Caribbean Sea.  This 
feature will continue to steer Genevieve west-northwestward or 
northwestward for the next few days, although the hurricane’s speed 
will likely slow down to 7-8 kt in 2 to 3 days when a mid-level 
trough develops over southern Mexico.  The track guidance is fairly 
tightly clustered.  The new NHC track is nudged slightly faster and 
to the south of the previous forecast track, in between the previous 
track and the latest HCCA (HFIP corrected consensus) and GDMI 
(Google Deep Mind Ensemble Mean).

Genevieve has strengthened by 25 kt in the past 12 h and 35 kt in 
the past 24 h.  Rapid intensification is expected to continue given 
the highly favorable thermodynamic environment of sea-surface 
temperatures in excess of 30C and a humid mid-level airmass.  The 
cyclone should also remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear 
environment for the next couple of days.  SHIPS Rapid 
Intensification (RI) guidance and DTOPS continue to forecast a 
fairly high probability of an additional 45 kt of strengthening over 
the next 36 h.  Given that some of the latest intensity guidance has 
increased, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased 
accordingly, now showing a peak of 125 kt in 36-48 h.  The new NHC 
intensity forecast is higher than most of the hurricane regional 
models and GDMI, but not as high as the HCCA.  Gradual weakening is 
likely to begin after 48 h as Genevieve gradually encounters cooler 
sea-surface temperatures, and a drier and more stable environment.  
However, Genevieve is forecast to remain a hurricane through day 5.

The wind radii were increased significantly, based on a recent 
ASCAT pass.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 12.9N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 13.8N 109.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 14.9N 111.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 16.1N 113.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 17.1N 114.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 17.9N 116.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 18.5N 117.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 19.8N 121.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 21.4N 125.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen