Tropical Storm Genevieve

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 252035
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
300 PM CST Sat Jul 25 2026
 
Genevieve continues to intensify this afternoon. The central dense 
overcast has persisted near the center and a plethora of curved 
bands continue to wrap around the western and southern semicircles 
of the storm. The Dvorak subjective intensity estimate from TAFB at 
18 UTC was still T3.5/55 kt. Since then, the objective satellite 
estimates have continued to rise. The most recent Advanced Dvorak 
Technique (ADT) estimate is now at 65 kt, with D-PRINT estimates 
over the past couple of hours oscillating between 55-60 kt. Given 
the continued improvement in Genevieve's structure, the initial 
intensity is being raised to 60 kt for this advisory. Scatterometer 
data around 16 UTC also indicated that Genevieve's wind field has 
expanded, especially on its eastern side.
 
The tropical storm continues to march on to the west-northwest,
estimated at 300/13 kt. There is not much new to report with the
forecast track evolution, as a deep-layer ridge located over the
southwestern United States extending into the Pacific should
maintain Genevieve's west-northwest to northwest motion through the
entire forecast period. The track guidance this afternoon continues 
to be tightly clustered close to the previous forecast track, 
though the model mean is a little bit slower beyond 72 h. Thus, 
the latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, but 
is a little slower, roughly splitting the difference between the 
reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids. 
 
Genevieve appears poised to undergo a period of rapid 
intensification (RI), if it is not already underway. The last 
microwave pass over the tropical cyclone was several hours ago, so 
it is unclear if the small inner core has fully closed off on the 
western side. Regardless, environmental parameters remain quite 
favorable, and SHIPS RI guidance (both the GFS and ECMWF versions) 
show between a 74 to 100 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in 
intensity over the next 36 h, with DTOPS RI guidance in the 90 
percent range over the same time span. Thus, a 45 kt increase in 
intensity is forecast over the next 36 h, with Genevieve predicted 
to peak as a 115 kt category 4 hurricane in 48 h. This intensity 
forecast is in between the higher HCCA guidance and lower GDMI and 
HAFS-A/B solutions. After 48 h, the combination of inner-core 
fluctuations, a brief increase in northwesterly shear, and gradually 
decreasing sea surface temperatures (SST) could lead to gradual 
weakening. This weakening rate will likely increase when Genevieve 
crosses the 26 C SST isotherm between days 4 and 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 11.5N 105.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 12.4N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 13.5N 109.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 14.7N 111.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 15.9N 112.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 16.9N 114.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 19.0N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin