Hurricane Vance

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240838
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Vance Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
300 AM CST Sat Oct 24 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Vance's convective structure has 
changed little during the past several hours. The eye remains ragged 
and intermittently obscured by clouds, surrounded by deep convection 
within the eyewall where cloud-top temperatures are around -75 C. 
Recent microwave imagery revealed a slight northward tilt of the 
vortex, reflecting the persistent moderate southerly vertical wind 
shear. A 0353 UTC Metop-C scatterometer pass helped refine the 
analyzed wind radii. Subjective Dvorak and objective intensity 
estimates remain in the 90 to 100 kt range. Given these estimates 
and the relatively steady satellite presentation, the initial 
intensity is held at 95 kt.
 
The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 335/6 kt. This general 
motion should continue through tonight as the subtropical ridge 
weakens in response to a broad mid- to upper-level trough near the 
West Coast of the United States. The track guidance remains in good 
agreement through tonight, but Vance's forward speed is expected to 
decrease as it enters a region of weak steering currents. 
Considerable cross-track spread develops among the guidance 
solutions beginning around 36 h, partly due to differences in how 
well Vance maintains its vertical structure as increasing shear and 
cooler waters affect the cyclone. A weaker system could be steered 
more west-northwestward, while a stronger hurricane would be more 
likely to continue northward. Given the substantial spread, even 
between the HCCA and GDMI aids after day 3, track forecast 
confidence remains quite low as Vance approaches the vicinity of the 
southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico next week. The NHC 
track forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous 
prediction, lying near the HCCA and GDMI aids through day 3 and 
representing an average of these two solutions thereafter.

Vance's intensity appears to have leveled off during the past 
several hours after the hurricane underwent a period of rapid 
intensification on Friday. Although some fluctuations in strength 
remain possible today, cooler sea surface temperatures associated 
with the wakes of recent tropical cyclones have reduced the ocean 
heat content along portions of Vance's forecast track. These cooler 
waters, combined with increasing vertical wind shear, should induce 
a weakening trend beginning tonight and continuing through Sunday. 
The aforementioned differences in the track guidance have also 
contributed to considerable spread among the intensity solutions, 
with the possibility of more substantial weakening than currently 
forecast. Vance could move beyond the cooler waters by 48 h, 
allowing for a brief period of restrengthening by 60 h. Thereafter, 
increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and 
possible land interaction should lead to another weakening trend 
late in the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains 
similar to the previous prediction and lies near the upper end of 
the guidance envelope through much of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 12.4N 102.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 13.1N 103.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 14.3N 103.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 15.2N 103.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 16.2N 104.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 16.6N 104.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 17.5N 104.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 18.5N 104.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs