Hurricane Vance

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231443
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Vance Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 AM CST Fri Oct 23 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Vance continues to get better 
organized this morning. The hurricane has a well-defined central 
dense overcast with occasional hints of an eye trying to form and 
eyewall cloud tops poking up through the overcast. The hurricane 
also has a large complex of outer bands in the northeastern 
semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 70-79 kt 
range, and they have trended upward slightly since the last 
advisory. The initial intensity is set at 80 kt.

Vance is currently undergoing steady to rapid strengthening and a 
very favorable atmospheric environment. However, there are two 
issues that seriously complicate the intensity forecast. First, the 
previous tropical cyclones that have moved through the area near 
Vance's forecast track have caused a significant decrease in both 
oceanic heat content and sea surface temperatures north of where 
the center is now. Indeed, sea surface temperatures at a drifting 
buoy about 25 n mi from the center of Vance have fallen below 28C 
just during the past few hours.  This cold pool is likely to halt 
intensification, and it may take Vance a couple of days to get past 
it. Second, southwesterly and westerly vertical wind shear is 
forecast to increase by 24 h, and in combination with the colder 
water could cause the cyclone to weaken. The new intensity forecast 
follows the scenario shown by the HAFS models, which shows 
weakening while the cyclone is over the colder water followed by 
modest re-intensification. It should be noted that a track to the 
right of the forecast track will keep the center over the colder 
water for a longer time, while a track to the left would reduce how 
much time the center spends over the cold pool. If it is not 
already apparent, this intensity forecast is low confidence.
 
The center has reformed or jogged to the west during the past few 
hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 325/4 kt. 
Vance is currently being steered by a weak mid-level ridge over 
eastern Mexico and the eastern Pacific, and later in the forecast 
period it will come under the influence of a large mid- to 
upper-level trough over the western United States as well as the 
adjacent portions of northern Mexico and the northeastern Pacific. 
While the dynamical models agree on the general synoptic pattern, 
the track forecast is complicated by the possibilities of how 
strong and vertically stacked Vance will be. A stronger and more 
vertically stacked Vance, especially as depicted in the GFS, will 
likely move slowly toward the north-northwest and north during the 
forecast period. On the other hand, the UKMET and Canadian forecast 
Vance to be weaker and shear apart, with the low-level center being 
steered more to the northwest before eventually turning northward. 
The track forecast follows the scenario that Vance will stay 
vertically coupled, and the new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track. However, it lies to the left of the Google DeepMind 
Ensemble Mean, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and the Florida State 
Superensemble.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 10.7N 102.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 11.3N 102.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 12.3N 102.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 13.3N 103.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 14.4N 103.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 15.3N 103.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 15.9N 104.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 16.6N 104.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 17.5N 104.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven