Tropical Depression Vance

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 292031
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Vance Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
200 PM MST Thu Oct 29 2026
 
Vance is weakening again. Satellite imagery shows the convective 
structure of Vance has degraded since the previous advisory, as deep 
convection has now shifted about 95 n mi northeast of Vance's 
center. This structure is clear evidence of strong vertical wind 
shear affecting the cyclone. An earlier 1559 UTC Metop-B 
scatterometer pass showed an elongated system with a peak reliable 
wind of 29 kt. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB 
was T2.0/30 kt, aligning well with objective aids from UW-CIMSS 
ranging from 28 to 37 kt. Given the recent degradation in satellite 
presentation and the latest intensity estimates, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 30 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/6 kt.  This 
general motion at about the same speed is expected until Vance 
degenerates into a trough of low pressure over the southern Gulf of 
California by this evening. The new NHC forecast is largely 
unchanged from the previous one, lying close to the HCCA and TVCN 
aids. The primary hazard associated with Vance remains to be heavy 
rainfall, with high rain rates likely in areas of deep convection 
across north-central Mexico.

Vance continues to feel effects of a hostile environment, 
characterized by strong vertical wind shear of over 50 kt and 
increasingly dry mid-level relative humidity values around 40 to 50 
percent. As a result, the cyclone is soon expected to become a 
remnant low, with most models showing dissipation shortly thereafter 
over the southern Gulf of California. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact
portions of western Mexico during the next day or two. This rainfall
may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern
Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit,
especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
2. Moisture carried northeastward from Vance will produce heavy rain
across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains and New Mexico today
into Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 22.3N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 23.3N 108.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Papin