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Hurricane Karina
Public Advisory #20
2 hr & 56 min ago • 1100 PM HST
ES
Adviso Publico #20
hace 2 h y 56 min • 1100 PM HST
Forecast Advisory #20
2 hr & 56 min ago • 0900 UTC
Forecast Discussion #20
2 hr & 56 min ago • 1100 PM HST
ES
Pronóstico Discusión #20
hace 2 h y 56 min • 1100 PM HST
Wind Speed Probabilities #20
2 hr & 56 min ago • 0900 UTC
Hurricane Karina Forecast Discussion
Advisory Number: 20
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010836
TCDEP1
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026
Karina is maintaining a well-defined eye surrounded by very deep
convection with cloud tops to -80 deg C or even colder. Subjective
Dvorak estimates indicate that the hurricane is maintaining its
intensity. In fact, the objective satellite consensus intensity
estimate, SATCON, from UW-CIMSS suggests that Karina has become
slightly stronger with an estimated maximum wind speed near 120 kt
for this advisory. There is not much evidence of concentric
eyewalls at this time, and Karina still has some potential to become
an annular hurricane.
The estimated motion continues to be west-northwestward, or
285/9 kt. A narrow mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north
of Karina should keep the system on a west-northwestward to westward
track at about the same forward speed through 72 hours or so. By
days 4-5 a weak mid-level low to the north of the Hawaiian Islands
should induce a slightly more northwestward motion. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the
simple model consensus. The corrected consensus is a little north
of the NHC track in the latter part of the forecast period.
Karina is likely to remain over marginally warm ocean waters with
low vertical wind shear for the next couple of days. This should
keep the system as a major hurricane through the next 36 hours or
so. Although a slightly drier low- to mid-level air mass and
gradually cooling SSTs should result in slow weakening, Karina
could maintain its intensity more than expected if it takes on an
annular structure. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the model consensus and on the high side of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 18.0N 127.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 18.5N 129.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.9N 131.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 19.3N 133.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 19.6N 135.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 19.9N 136.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 20.2N 138.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 20.8N 142.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 22.4N 145.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch