Hurricane Odalys

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 261446
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The structure of Odalys this morning appears to be quickly going 
downhill. The small eye that had been associated with the hurricane 
is no longer seen on geostationary satellite imagery. An earlier 
AMSR3 microwave pass also showed the inner core has degraded as 
southerly vertical wind shear quickly increases, now diagnosed at 32 
kt by UW-CIMSS. Both subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates are decreasing, and the initial intensity has been lowered 
to 90 kt for this advisory. 

With the abrupt increase in shear, Odalys is likely to continue 
rapidly weakening in the short-term. Most of the model guidance 
shows the vertical structure decoupling in the next 24-36 h as shear 
imports nearby dry air is into the circulation's core. The NHC 
intensity forecast was lowered quite a bit form the previous one, 
partially due to the lower initial intensity, but also with the 
expectation the small tropical cyclone will quickly succumb to the 
unfavorable environment. The latest forecast now shows Odalys 
becoming a remnant low in 48 h and dissipating by the mid portion of 
next week. 

The hurricane continues to move northward, with an estimated motion 
at 360 degree at 6 kt. A deep-layer trough to its northwest should 
maintain this general steering for the next 12-24 h, though as the 
the system decouples and becomes vertically shallow it should turn 
sharply back to the southeast or even south as it becomes more 
influenced by broad low-level ridging to its northwest. The latest 
NHC track is shifted slightly north in the short-term, but was also 
shifted westward after Odalys become a remnant low, following the 
latest trends in the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and 
Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) guidance.
 
Distant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 19.8N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 20.7N 123.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 21.9N 123.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z 21.7N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z 19.0N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin