Hurricane Fausto

171 
WTPZ41 KNHC 252035
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Fausto has not changed much since 
earlier this morning. The ragged, 25 n mi wide eye of the hurricane 
is surrounded by a ring of deep convection that has intermittently 
been disrupted by some intrusions of dry air. The latest D-MINT, 
D-PRINT, and AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS are all hovering around 85 
kt, which is the basis for holding the initial intensity there for 
this advisory. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is 
currently underway to sample the environment around Fausto.

Fausto is moving into a drier mid-level environment over marginal 
sea-surface temperatures, and southwesterly vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase after 36 h while the system moves over the 
central Pacific basin. The intensity models unanimously agree that 
Fausto will weaken on its approach to the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near 
the simple (IVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. A faster rate 
of weakening is shown from 60-120 h once environmental conditions 
become increasingly hostile. As Fausto moves toward the Hawaiian 
Islands, the wind field is predicted to shrink and become 
asymmetric, with the strongest winds becoming displaced to the 
northern side of the circulation. 

A narrow subtropical ridge over the eastern and central Pacific 
Ocean continues to steer the hurricane toward the west at 12 kt. 
Fausto is expected to maintain this westward heading through early 
next week, bringing the system into the central Pacific basin 
tomorrow and toward Hawaii thereafter. A mid-level trough over the 
north-central Pacific may weaken the steering ridge enough early 
next week to induce a more west-northwestward motion later in the 
period. The track guidance trended northward once again and is 
coming into better agreement that Fausto should pass near but to the 
north of the Hawaiian Islands, making its closest approach during 
the middle of next week. The NHC forecast was nudged north of the 
previous prediction between 60-120 h, toward the latest consensus 
aids (TVCN, HCCA) and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI). 

Regardless of the exact track, there is high confidence that Fausto 
will produce large swells, increased surf, and dangerous rip 
currents while it approaches and passes near the Hawaiian Islands. 
Based on the predicted sheared nature of the storm, the risk of 
sustained tropical-force-winds on land should be low as long as the 
forecast track stays north of the islands. Interests in Hawaii 
should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian 
Islands early next week. While the chances of the strongest winds 
and heaviest rainfall remaining offshore north of the islands are 
increasing, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the 
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the 
Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing 
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to 
begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the 
state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and 
continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves 
into the area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 19.3N 137.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 19.6N 139.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 20.0N 141.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 20.4N 144.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 20.9N 147.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 21.5N 149.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 22.1N 152.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 23.0N 157.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 24.0N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart