Hurricane Fausto

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Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2026
 
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Fausto today 
has found the hurricane is more or less steady state from this 
morning. Their peak 700 mb flight level winds were 86 kt in the 
northeast quadrant, though with a higher minimum pressure of 984 mb. 
On satellite, the hurricane's presentation has stabilized somewhat, 
with cold convective cloud tops trying to wrap around a cloud-filled 
eye after dry air infiltrated the core earlier this morning. A 
standard reduction of the flight-level winds still supports an 
intensity of 75 kt for this advisory.
 
Center fixes from the aircraft also found Fausto's center a little 
south of the satellite estimates, but it continues to move generally 
westward at 280/12 kt. The track philosophy is unchanged from 
earlier, with a low- to mid-level ridge north of Fausto expected to 
steer the tropical cyclone on a west-northwest heading at a similar 
forward speed over the next 3 to 4 days. As Fausto encounters higher 
shear on its path in 36-48 h, convective burst on its downshear side 
might result in some track fluctuation, though ultimately the storm 
will become more vertically shallow, steered increasingly by the 
low-level flow. Compared to the previous cycle, the track guidance 
has shifted a touch south, though some of this change is a 
reflection of the farther south initial position. The NHC track 
forecast was also nudged in that direction, roughly in between the 
reliable HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). On the forecast track, Fausto still 
should pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday night into 
Wednesday with the bulk of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall 
remaining north of the islands.
 
Fausto's core continues to battle against dry air intrusions on its 
west side, with the most recent recon fix still indicating an 
eyewall that remains open to the northwest. After the next 24 h, 
westerly vertical wind shear increases quite dramatically, with 
EC-SHIPS showing this shear increasing above 30 kt in 48 h. Thus, 
while gradual weakening should continue in the short term, a faster 
rate of weakening is expected beyond the next day or so. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast now shows Fausto weakening to a remnant low 
in 96 h as the storm loses convective organization, with dissipation 
occurring shortly thereafter. This intensity forecast is a bit on 
the high side early on, but falls roughly in the middle of the 
intensity guidance envelope. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the 
Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates 
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of 
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the 
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Confidence remains high that swells generated by Fausto will
reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to
steadily build westward across the state over the next few days as
Fausto approaches and passes to the north.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 19.9N 142.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 20.1N 144.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 20.7N 147.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 21.3N 149.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 21.8N 152.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 22.2N 154.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 22.7N 157.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 23.7N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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