Hurricane Odalys

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 251447
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026
 
Odalys has rapidly intensified this morning, and the conventional
satellite presentation consists of a 30 nmi 5 deg C irregular eye 
with inner core convection cloud tops of -80 deg C.  The wind 
pattern aloft has improved since yesterday, with apparent dual 
outflow channels located over the northeast and southwest quadrants. 
The Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS objective 
intensity techniques support holding the initial intensity at 115 
kt.
 
Over the weekend, Odalys should encounter a progressively 
inhibiting surrounding atmospheric environment and decreasing 
oceanic temperatures.  Accordingly, the cyclone should gradually 
weaken, lose its organized convection late this weekend, and become 
a post-tropical cyclone while maintaining gale-force winds.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is bumped slightly upward due to the rapid 
intensification period, and is just above the HFIP HCCA and near 
the Google DeepMind ensemble guidance.
 
Odalys' initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or 
030/5 kt.  By early Saturday, the cyclone should turn northward, 
moving in the southerly steering flow provided by an amplifying 
mid- to upper-level tropospheric trough approaching the west coast 
of the U.S. and the Baja California peninsula.  By early next week, 
an increasing influence from Hurricane Polo's horizontal wind field 
is expected to induce a relatively sharp turn eastward while the 
cyclone continues to weaken.  By day 4, Odalys is forecast to 
turn southeastward within the southwestern peripheral flow of 
Polo and reduce in forward speed.  Very few adjustments were made 
to the previous advisory, and the new track forecast lies close to 
the better-performing HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
Moisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance
into the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may
indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in
the region.  See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center
for more information.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.4N 123.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 22.1N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 22.8N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 20.9N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 18.8N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts