Hurricane Odalys

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 240832
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
 
The convective pattern of Odalys has changed little over the past 
several hours. A persistent area of deep convection with cloud-top 
temperatures near -80C remains concentrated near the inner core. 
Subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, along with objective 
satellite intensity estimates, have held steady and generally range 
from 67 to 77 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial 
intensity is maintained at 75 kt for this advisory. In addition, 
recent scatterometer passes over the cyclone were helpful in 
refining the initial wind radii.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/7 
kt. Odalys is currently being steered by the deep-layer flow between 
a mid- to upper-level trough located to its northwest and a 
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. This steering pattern should 
maintain the east-northeastward heading for the next day or so, 
followed by a turn toward the northeast and eventually to the north 
at a slightly slower speed. Later in the forecast period, the track 
becomes highly uncertain due to a potential binary interaction with 
Hurricane Polo. Additionally, as Odalys weakens, model differences 
regarding the vertical depth of the cyclone, and exactly when it 
becomes steered by the shallow low-level flow. The updated NHC track 
forecast is very similar to the previous one and is in good 
agreement with the HCCA and GDMI aids.

Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to support slight 
intensification during the next day or so, with low to moderate 
vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and abundant 
mid-level moisture. After that time, the cyclone will encounter a 
progressively less favorable environment characterized by increasing 
vertical wind shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and mid-level 
dry air. This should induce a gradual, then more steady, weakening 
trend through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC 
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies 
near the HCCA corrected consensus aid. Given the increasingly 
hostile environment, the system will struggle to maintain deep 
convection later in the period. Simulated infrared satellite imagery 
from the global models shows the cyclone becoming devoid of deep 
convection by 96 h, and the updated forecast now indicates the 
system will become post-tropical at that time.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 16.1N 126.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.5N 123.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.2N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 19.1N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 20.2N 123.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 21.4N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/0600Z 21.8N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly