Hurricane Odalys

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 230841
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Odalys has recovered from the 
earlier dry air intrusion. Deep convection has developed over the 
low-level center, with a convective shield that has cold cloud tops 
near -80 C. In addition, a recent WSF-M microwave pass revealed a 
nearly closed low-level convective ring and a developing eye 
feature. A subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB has 
increased to T4.0/65 kt, and objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS range between 55 and 68 kt. Based on these estimates and 
the improved structural organization in the microwave data, the 
initial intensity is set at 65 kt, making Odalys a hurricane.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/8 
kt. This general motion is expected to continue in the short term as 
Odalys is steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough 
moving into the eastern Pacific and a strong ridge located over 
central Mexico. A turn toward the northeast and then north is 
forecast in a couple of days. Beyond day 3, the steering pattern 
becomes increasingly complex, and potential interaction with 
Hurricane Polo will likely complicate the future track of Odalys. 
The updated NHC track forecast is near the previous advisory, and 
lies near the previous the HCCA and GDMI track aids.
 
Vertical wind shear is forecast to begin relaxing as Odalys 
traverses warm sea surface temperatures, which should allow for 
steady strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 to 72 
hours, wind shear is forecast to increase once again, SSTs will 
cool, and Odalys may begin to experience upper-level outflow from 
Hurricane Polo. At the same time, the cyclone will move into a drier 
mid-level environment, which should induce a weakening trend. The 
official NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak 
intensity, and is closest to the HCCA and GDMI intensity aids. 
Toward the end of the forecast period, model-simulated infrared 
satellite imagery indicates that Odalys will succumb to a drier 
environment. As the system becomes devoid of organized deep 
convection, it is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical 
cyclone, which is now shown in the latest NHC forecast at day 5. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 15.9N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 16.1N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 17.2N 124.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 18.7N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 19.5N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 22.3N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly