Hurricane Fausto

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 220835
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
 
Hurricane Fausto's satellite presentation has improved throughout
the evening, with deep convection bursting over the low-level
center, with cold cloud tops near -80C, and a large curved band on
the southeast side of the system. Earlier SAR satellite imagery and
scatterometer data show that the center of the system was farther
east than anticipated. Satellite intensity estimates have generally
trended upward over the last several hours, with UW-CIMSS ADT and
AiDT at 74 and 65 kt, respectively. The latest TAFB subjective
intensity estimate was T5.0/90 kt. Given the improved satellite
presentation and these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to
75 kt for this advisory.
 
The system is moving west-northwestward at an estimated 285/7 kt
along the southern edge of a subtropical ridge to the north. The
ridge is forecast to strengthen and build westward over the next
several days, which should cause the hurricane to continue moving
west-northwestward to westward throughout the forecast period. The
latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 72 hours,
with little spread in the track guidance. Beyond 72 hours, the
forecast has once again shifted southward toward the latest HCCA and
GDMI consensus aids, and lies between these aids and the simple
consensus. Model spread increases toward the end of the forecast
period, with the GFS and some of the regional hurricane models
slower and farther north, while HCCA and GDMI are faster and farther
south.
 
Fausto is currently moving over warm ocean temperatures within an
environment of light to moderate wind shear and abundant mid-level
moisture, which should allow for further strengthening. Along the
forecast track, Fausto will pass over gradually cooling SSTs, and
will be moving roughly parallel to the 26C isotherm by 36 hours. At
the same time, mid-level relative humidity values are expected to
decrease through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest
NHC intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening though a
slightly earlier peak than previously forecast, followed by gradual
weakening. This forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance
envelope in the short term, before aligning closer to the consensus
as the system weakens. Should Fausto take a more northerly track,
the system would struggle to sustain deep convection, potentially
leading to a faster weakening trend than is currently forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 16.7N 120.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 17.0N 121.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 17.4N 123.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 17.7N 126.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 18.0N 129.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 18.3N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 18.7N 134.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 19.3N 139.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 19.8N 144.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly