Tropical Storm Odalys

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 220839
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026
 
Bursts of deep convection continue near the center of Odalys tonight 
as the cyclone becomes better organized. Although recent 
scatterometer passes missed the circulation, microwave imagery shows 
an improving structure, with convective banding now evident over the 
southern and eastern quadrants. Subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS range from 47 to 55 kt. 
Given the improved satellite presentation, the initial intensity is 
raised to 55 kt for this advisory, leaning toward the higher end of 
these estimates.

The system is moving north-northwestward, or 340/6 kt. A decrease in 
forward speed is expected today as the cyclone turns northward, 
northeastward, and then east-northeastward tonight in response to a 
deepening trough moving into the eastern Pacific toward the western 
coast of the United States. An east-northeastward to eastward motion 
is forecast for the rest of the week as Odalys is steered within the 
flow of the trough. Toward the end of the forecast period, the track 
forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to a potential binary 
interaction with Hurricane Polo as it tracks toward Baja California, 
which could cause Odalys to slow down late in the period. The latest 
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, though 
nudged slightly leftward and slowed down given the model uncertainty 
around day 5.
 
Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for 
strengthening over the next couple of days, as vertical wind shear 
slightly decreases, with abundant mid-level moisture, and warm sea 
surface temperatures. Thus, Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane 
later today or tonight. In 48 to 72 hours, the cyclone is expected 
to encounter a drier mid-level air mass and may experience increased 
wind shear induced by upper-level outflow from Hurricane Polo. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the 
guidance, aligned closely with the HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 14.7N 130.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 15.1N 130.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 15.3N 129.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 16.3N 125.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 17.0N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 18.5N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 20.2N 122.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly