Tropical Depression Amanda

206 
WTPZ41 KNHC 070236
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Amanda Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
500 PM HST Sat Jun 06 2026
 
Amanda is quickly on the path to becoming a post-tropical remnant 
low. Deep convection has remained sporadic and confined primarily to 
the western semicircle due to persistent east-southeasterly shear 
and dry mid-level air. Additionally, the exposed low-level 
circulation has become less defined within a broad low-cloud swirl. 
A recent scatterometer pass sampled winds of 25 to 30 kt north of 
the center, which aligns with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates 
from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS. Based on 
these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

Amanda is moving toward the southwest, or 215/3 kt. A low- to 
mid-level ridge centered north of the cyclone is expected to remain 
the primary steering influence through the next several days, 
resulting in a continued southwestward to west-southwestward motion. 
The latest guidance remains tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast 
track is little changed from the previous advisory.

Persistent east-southeasterly shear and dry mid-level air 
entrainment will continue to limit convective organization, despite 
the warm SSTs along the forecast track. Simulated satellite imagery 
from the dynamical models generally agrees in showing only 
occasional bursts of convection. Therefore, continued weakening is 
forecast, and Amanda is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical 
remnant low by late Sunday. The remnant circulation should persist 
for a few additional days before dissipating by Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 12.1N 134.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 11.7N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 11.3N 135.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1200Z 11.0N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0000Z 10.8N 137.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/1200Z 10.5N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z 10.2N 139.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z  9.7N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)