Tropical Storm Amanda

710 
WTPZ41 KNHC 050233
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
800 PM PDT Thu Jun 04 2026
 
Since the prior advisory, a more significant burst of deep 
convection formed close to Amanda’s center with cloud top 
temperatures earlier reaching as low as -80C. Underneath the cirrus, 
a 2225 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass showed some inner core organization 
on the 37-GHz channel, though the 89-GHz channel showed less 
organization with the center tilted with height due to persistent 
southeasterly shear. Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates range from 33-44 kt and the initial intensity remains    
40 kt for this advisory. 

The tropical storm has maintained a west-northwestward motion, 
estimated at 290/9 kt. Amanda should gradually turn to the west and 
then west-southwest while slowing down as a narrow mid-level ridge 
builds in to its northwest. By this weekend, Amanda should become 
more vertically shallow, but a prominent low-level ridge 
north of Hawaii should maintain this south of west motion 
through the remainder of the forecast. The track guidance this 
evening shifted a little north in the short term, and the NHC track 
forecast has been nudged in that direction. This forecast lies 
roughly in between the HCCA and GDMI track aids. 

While convection has increased some over Amanda this evening, it 
still does not have a lot of organization on conventional satellite 
imagery. While the forecast environment does not change much over 
the next 24 hours, the mid-level moisture starts to decrease more 
appreciably after that time. In response, most of the guidance shows 
gradual weakening beginning after 24 hours, though Amanda might 
continue to sputter along with occasional bursts of deep convection 
as it remains over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Shear increases 
further beyond 60 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast still 
shows Amanda becoming a remnant low by the end of the weekend, 
though the circulation may survive a few additional days before 
opening up into a trough.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 13.3N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 13.5N 132.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 13.4N 133.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 13.0N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 12.6N 134.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 12.1N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 11.7N 136.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z 11.3N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z 11.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Papin