Hurricane Odalys

716 
WTPZ41 KNHC 242034
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
 
There are hints of a ragged eye feature in recent visible satellite 
images of Odalys. A 1735 UTC 89 GHz GMI image of the hurricane 
showed a mostly closed mid-level eyewall, although convection was a 
bit thin on the west side due to moderate westerly shear. The 
various UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates range from 
71-84 kt. The initial intensity is held at 80 kt, in best agreement 
with recent D-MINT and SATCON estimates.

Odalys is moving east-northeastward (060/7 kt) while being steered 
by a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest. The models 
generally agree that the hurricane should gradually turn toward the 
northeast and north over the next couple of days. There was a 
westward shift in the guidance envelope through the first 2-3 days 
of the forecast, and the NHC prediction was adjusted accordingly. 
The long-range track forecast is challenging, with Odalys forecast 
to become increasingly shallow while weakening and also possibly 
being influenced by the outer circulation of Hurricane Polo. The 
model spread greatly increases at 72-120 h, but the general signal 
is for a slower forward speed and a southward component of motion at 
days 3-5. The NHC forecast was nudged west of the previous one at 
these times, falling in between the latest TVCN and HCCA aids.

In the near term, small intensity fluctuations are possible as the 
improved structure of Odalys could allow for a little strengthening 
despite moderate shear and the potential for intrusion of drier air 
from the west. The latest intensity guidance shows little change 
during this period, and the NHC forecast follows suit. After 36 h, 
a faster rate of weakening is forecast based on an expected 
increase in shear, as well as decreasing SSTs along the forecast 
track. These conditions will likely make it difficult for Odalys to 
sustain organized convection later this weekend, and the updated 
forecast shows Odalys as a post-tropical cyclone at 72 h based on 
the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery.
 
Moisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance 
into the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may 
indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in 
the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for 
more information.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 16.8N 124.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 17.4N 124.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 19.2N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 20.4N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 22.4N 122.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  28/1800Z 22.4N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1800Z 20.6N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart