Tropical Storm Fay

938 
WTNT41 KNHC 260259
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026
 
Fay's structure is falling apart once again. Satellite imagery shows 
that most of the deep convection has disappeared over the past 
several hours. Recent ASCAT data returned a maximum wind retrieval 
of just 24 kt, but given the low bias of the ASCAT due to its 
resolution, and the fact that all of the recent subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates still support tropical storm 
intensity, the initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 35 
kt.
 
The initial motion remains slow, at 260/3 kt. Steering winds are 
expected to remain light as Fay sits within the Atlantic subtropical 
high, with a turn to the south-southwest expected within the next 24 
h as the storm meanders into the southern flank of the high. Track 
forecast models are generally in good agreement for the first 48 h, 
before exhibiting larger spread thereafter as Fay moves away from 
the influence of the subtropical high. Skilled models suggest that 
Fay could be picked up by the prevailing easterlies by early next 
week, but the latest forecast calls for Fay to dissipate by then. 
 
Fay has been difficult to forecast, as global models continue to 
depict recurring cycles of diurnal convection, which have allowed 
Fay to gain a second wind, so to speak, even as environmental 
conditions become increasingly hostile. This is likely due to SSTs 
remaining favorable for the storm, even as SHIPS guidance suggest 
that mid-level moisture is lacking and vertical wind shear remains 
moderate. Intensity guidance also depicts another re-strengthening 
of Fay just beyond 48 h, likely due to vertical wind shear 
relenting. The current thinking behind the forecast, however, is 
that with Fay weak enough as it is, the current environment will 
continue to degrade its structure and inhibit its ability to 
restrengthen. As a result, the latest intensity forecast is 
relatively conservative, holding Fay's strength somewhat steady as 
it undergoes these cycles of nocturnal convection, before the storm 
is expected to open up into a trough by Tuesday. 

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 29.9N  43.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 30.0N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 29.9N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 29.2N  43.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 28.3N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1200Z 27.2N  44.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z 25.4N  44.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen