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NHC

Tropical Storm Bertha Wind Speed Probabilities

Advisory Number: 8
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026

000
FONT12 KNHC 210838
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

PENSACOLA FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFAM 290N 870W 34 72 18(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 23 10(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
GFAM 290N 870W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)

GFAM 280N 890W 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)

GFAM 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GFAM 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)

LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12)

HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GFAM 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)

PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

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