Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C

904 
WTPA32 PHFO 130248
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Advisory Number   3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026
 
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH WINDS AND
DANGEROUS SURF TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 143.5W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system.  A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will
likely be required for a portion of the state by early Thursday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.8 North, longitude 143.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward 
motion is expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track, 
the center will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands by late Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts, but the system still lacks organized shower and thunderstorm
activity. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Thursday, and additional strengthening is forecast thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and
WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND:  There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian
Islands regardless of the exact track of this system.
 
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across much of the Island chain,
with maximum totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to reach
the east-facing shores of the state on Friday, spreading westward
and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake