Tropical Storm Pena

000
WTPA44 PHFO 090244
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Nov 08 2026
 
A persistent burst of deep convection remains over the estimated 
center position of Pena this afternoon, with very cold cloud top 
temperatures of less than -80 C observed within the CDO. However, a 
separate area of convection persists to the east of the primary 
convective burst, suggesting that the tropical storm continues to 
struggle with consolidating its inner core. An earlier ASCAT-C pass 
and GPM microwave imagery indicated that Pena's center was located 
farther south than previously estimated, and the initial position 
has been adjusted accordingly. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates range from T3.0/45 kt to T3.5/55 kt, while 
objective intensity estimates range from 32-47 kt. Based on the 
latest satellite imagery, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 
kt for this advisory. 
 
Pena is moving westward at 260/7 kt. Given the shallow nature of the 
tropical storm, its motion is being governed by a low- to mid-level 
ridge centered northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This general 
motion is forecast to persist through the middle of the week. 
Thereafter, Pena is forecast to turn west-northwestward and increase 
its forward speed as a new ridge builds to its north. The latest NHC 
track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous 
forecast to account for the southward adjustment of the initial 
position, and is slightly faster, bringing it into closer alignment 
with the latest HCCA guidance. 

Despite moving over very warm sea surface temperatures near 29 C and 
within an environment with low vertical wind shear and relatively 
moist mid-level conditions, Pena has thus far been unable to 
establish a well-defined inner core. A considerable spread remains 
among the dynamical and statistical guidance, although recent model 
cycles have gradually trended toward lower peak intensities. 
Consequently, the potential for significant strengthening appears to 
be diminishing. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered 
slightly around midweek and remains near the middle of the guidance 
envelope. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 11.4N 157.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 11.4N 159.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 11.3N 161.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 11.3N 163.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 11.2N 165.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 11.1N 168.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 11.3N 170.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 12.6N 177.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 14.4N 177.2E   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams