Hurricane Lowell

000
WTPA44 PHFO 071452
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Sep 07 2026
 
Lowell is a well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye and cold
cloud tops in the eyewall, though overnight microwave imagery still
showed evidence of concentric eyewalls.  Intensity estimates are
about the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed is held at
100 kt.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to be in the cyclone in a few hours for a better estimate.
 
The initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/12 kt. A cut-off
mid- to upper-level low is slowly moving westward to the north-
northwest of Hawaii, which should allow the storm to gradually bend
more to north during the next 24 hours.  However, this northward
turn has been delayed from expected, and the guidance has shifted
about 30 n mi to the east of the last forecast.  NHC's new forecast
follows that trend, bringing the hurricane closer to the western
Hawaiian Islands.  The new forecast necessitates a Tropical Storm
Watch for Oahu, and any further eastward adjustments could require
a warning later today or this afternoon.  Beyond 2 days, Lowell
should swing westward as it merges with the upper-low, a few
hundred miles north of the northwestern Hawaiian Islands.  The
forecast is shifted westward at long range, and the system could be
close to dissipating as a tropical cyclone on day 5 based on the
latest global model forecast.
 
Lowell is starting to encounter increasing shear and cooling
waters, which should cause a gradual weakening today, though it is
still expected to be a large hurricane as it passes near or just
west of Niihau.  Rapid weakening is in the forecast after it moves
north of the main Hawaiian Islands due to very strong shear and
marginal water temperatures.  Model guidance is in poor agreement in
the medium range due to the upper-level trough interaction, and
little change is made to the last forecast at long range.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The core of Lowell is forecast to pass near or just west of
Niihau tonight and early Tuesday, and damaging hurricane conditions
are expected to begin in Kauai County tonight and continue through
Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
later today. Higher wind gusts are expected atop mountains and on
windward and leeward slopes.
 
2. Periods of heavy rainfall will increase in coverage over the
Hawaiian Islands today and continue through Wednesday. This may
produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across
Kauai county and portions of the Big Island.
 
3. Large damaging waves are expected to impact exposed portions of
Kauai County and are likely to produce coastal flooding and
inundation of low-lying areas through early Tuesday.
 
4. Large swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands during the
next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 17.5N 162.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.5N 161.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 22.4N 160.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 25.1N 160.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 27.0N 161.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 27.8N 163.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 27.8N 166.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 27.5N 170.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 29.0N 172.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake