Hurricane Lowell

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WTPA44 PHFO 050248
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026
 
Lowell remains an extremely impressive hurricane this afternoon. 
Satellite imagery continues to show a warm and well-defined eye 
surrounded by a very symmetric eyewall. The ring of very cold cloud 
tops surrounding the eye has also expanded during the past few 
hours, with temperatures generally between -70 and -75 C. Data from 
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure 
has fallen about 8 mb since 18 UTC, with a recent minimum pressure 
of 922 mb. The aircraft also measured maximum 700-mb flight-level 
winds of 153 kt in the northeastern eyewall. Given the continued 
strengthening and impressive satellite presentation, the initial 
intensity is raised to 140 kt for this advisory, making Lowell a 
Category 5 hurricane once again.
 
The initial motion is 275/6 kt. Lowell should continue generally 
westward through Saturday while being steered by a mid-level ridge 
to the north of the hurricane. On Sunday, the steering pattern is 
expected to change as a mid- to upper-level low moves south to 
southeastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands and weakens the 
subtropical ridge. This should cause Lowell to turn sharply 
northward or north-northeastward and accelerate, bringing the 
hurricane close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and 
Monday night. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where and 
how sharply Lowell makes this turn, which will depend on the 
location and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to 
the hurricane. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an 
update from the previous advisory and lies between the simple 
consensus (TVCN) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Some additional strengthening appears possible during the next 12 h. 
Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain weak tonight while Lowell 
remains over warm waters, and the recent pressure fall and 
increasingly impressive satellite presentation suggest that the 
hurricane could further intensify. Thereafter, some gradual 
weakening is forecast as the hurricane begins to encounter 
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The weakening rate 
should increase by Sunday and Monday as the shear strengthens 
considerably and Lowell moves over progressively cooler waters and 
begins to entrain dry mid-level air. Despite the expected weakening, 
Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches 
the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands early next week. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous advisory and 
remains above the guidance envelope through much of the period.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it
moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday
night. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions
of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches
will likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local
officials.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to 
impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through 
early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce flash flooding 
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 13.3N 161.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 13.5N 162.3W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 13.8N 163.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 14.6N 163.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 15.6N 164.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 17.3N 163.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 19.8N 163.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 24.4N 162.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 27.5N 164.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce