Hurricane Lowell

330 
WTPA44 PHFO 070244
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Sep 06 2026
 
Before departing Lowell, the final fix from the Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter mission found the hurricane was mostly steady 
state, with peak flight level winds of 109 kt and a minimum pressure 
still at 948 mb. While a closed 30 n mi wide eye remains, there was 
evidence of a secondary wind maximum beginning to form on the recon 
flight, and a secondary convective ring can also be seen from a 
recent AMSR3 microwave image, suggesting another eyewall replacement 
cycle may soon be underway. While the aircraft flight level winds 
support a maximum sustained wind of around 100 kt, the eastern side 
of Lowell was not fully sampled where the highest winds might be 
present given the current motion. This assessment, combined with 
higher satellite intensity estimates suggests maintaining the 
intensity at 105 kt this advisory.

Lowell is now moving a little east of due north this afternoon, 
estimated at 010 degrees at 8 kt. The synoptic situation continues 
to evolve as a cutoff mid- to upper-level low sliding west-southwest 
is beginning to capture Lowell, as mid-level ridging to the 
hurricane's southeast should generally impart a northward to 
north-northeastward motion over it for the next 24-48 h as Lowell 
gradually accelerates. Like this afternoon, there has been another 
eastward shift in the guidance, with the HFIP Corrected Consensus 
Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) aids along with the HAFS 
hurricane-regional models on the eastern side of the guidance 
envelope. Thus, the NHC official forecast has been shifted a little 
more eastward in response to these model trends. After 48 h, the 
cutoff low influencing Lowell's motion is forecast to lift out, with 
a mid-level ridge building back in to the north, which should result 
in the cyclone turning back to the northwest or even west in the 
latter half of the forecast period. 

While vertical wind shear over Lowell is currently low, it is soon 
forecast to increase out of the southwest to above 30 kt in 24 h. 
This shear, combined with the likelihood that Lowell may soon 
undergo another eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to 
weakening, first slowly, and then a faster rate in the 24-48 h time 
frame. This solution is reflected in the latest NHC intensity 
forecast, which shows slow weakening tonight, but a faster rate of 
weakening by Monday night into Tuesday when the shear is expected to 
be 30-40 kt over the hurricane. Regardless, Lowell is still forecast 
to be a hurricane when it makes it closest point of approach to the 
Hawaii Islands on Monday night. After passing by, Lowell should 
continue to weaken below hurricane intensity, and there remain some 
possibility of the storm becoming post-tropical by the end of the 
forecast period, though significant uncertainty remain in the model 
guidance by the 120 h period.

Given the eastward shift in the track guidance and with the 
expectation that Lowell's radii will also be larger on its eastern 
semicircle, the risk of hurricane conditions for Kauai and Niihau 
has increased, and a Hurricane Watch has now been issued for this 
portion of the Hawaiian Islands.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County 
late Monday into early Tuesday. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm 
Warning is now in effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and 
Niihau, where hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm 
conditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and continue 
through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts to hurricane force are also 
possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.
 
2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will 
increase in coverage over the Hawaiian Islands tonight and continue 
through Wednesday. This may produce significant flash flooding and 
mudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big 
Island.
 
3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of
low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 15.9N 163.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 17.2N 163.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 19.7N 162.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 22.6N 161.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 25.3N 161.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 27.0N 162.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 27.8N 164.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 27.8N 168.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 28.0N 170.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin