Hurricane Lowell

094 
WTPA44 PHFO 050853
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026
 
Lowell remains an impressive hurricane this evening. Satellite
imagery continues to show a very warm eye surrounded by a symmetric
eyewall, although the eye has become slightly more ragged and less
well defined during the past few hours. Some slight warming of the
cloud tops has also occurred within the eastern portion of the
eyewall. Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to 925 mb, and
maximum 700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to 141 kt. These
data support slightly lowering the initial intensity to 135 kt,
making Lowell a Category 4 hurricane.
 
The initial motion is 275/6 kt. Lowell should continue generally
westward through Saturday while being steered by a mid-level ridge
to the north of the hurricane. On Sunday, the steering pattern is
expected to change as a mid- to upper-level low moves south to
southeastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands and weakens the
subtropical ridge. This should cause Lowell to turn sharply
northward or north-northeastward and accelerate, bringing the
hurricane close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and
Monday night. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where and
how sharply Lowell makes this turn, which will depend on the
location and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to
the hurricane. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an
update from the previous advisory and lies between the simple
consensus (TVCN) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Environmental conditions should remain favorable for Lowell to 
maintain much of its strength during the next 12 to 24 h, with weak 
vertical wind shear and a moist environment expected along the 
forecast track. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during 
this time due to internal structural changes. Thereafter, Lowell is 
forecast to begin a gradual weakening trend as the vertical wind 
shear increases and the hurricane begins to entrain dry mid-level 
air. The rate of weakening is expected to increase by Monday as the 
shear becomes quite strong. Despite the expected weakening, Lowell 
is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches the 
westernmost Hawaiian Islands early next week. The NHC intensity 
forecast is essentially an updated of the previous forecast. 
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it
moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday
night. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions
of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches
will likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local
officials.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to
impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through
early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce flash flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 13.3N 161.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 13.6N 162.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 14.2N 163.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 15.1N 164.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 18.5N 163.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 21.1N 162.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 25.5N 163.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 28.1N 165.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce