Hurricane Lowell

600 
WTPA44 PHFO 020237
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
Lowell's satellite presentation continues to improve, characteristic 
of a rapidly intensifying cyclone. Deep, cold convection is wrapping 
around a fluctuating eye on infrared and visible satellite imagery. 
Over the past few hours, lightning activity has also increased 
within the eyewall. Objective and subjective satellite intensity 
estimates continue to rise as they attempt to catch up with the 
ongoing rapid intensification. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate 
from HFO was T5.5, but was constrained, with a Data-T of 6.0/115 kt. 
Based on these estimates and the continued improving satellite 
trends, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this advisory.
 
Lowell remains within a favorable environment characterized by warm 
sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. The system is 
likely to continue strengthening and is expected to remain a major 
hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period. However, 
fluctuations in intensity are possible due to internal structural 
changes, such as eyewall replacement cycles. Based on current 
conditions and recent trends, the official NHC intensity forecast 
remains near the upper end of the guidance suite.
 
The initial motion is westward, or 275/9 kt. A westward to 
west-northwestward motion should continue throughout much of the 
forecast period as Lowell is steered by a mid-level ridge located to 
the north. The official track forecast has once again been adjusted 
slightly southward during this time frame, trending closer to the 
HCCA and GDMI track aids. Toward the end of the forecast period, 
track uncertainty increases. An upper-level trough approaching from 
the west is forecast to move north of the Hawaiian Islands, 
weakening the aforementioned ridge. This evolution will cause Lowell 
to decelerate and begin turning toward the northwest or north late 
in the period. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to 
closely monitor Lowell's progress.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 13.5N 151.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 13.5N 152.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 13.6N 154.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 13.9N 156.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 14.0N 158.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 14.2N 159.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 14.2N 161.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 14.5N 163.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 15.6N 164.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly