Hurricane Lowell

000
WTPA44 PHFO 011446
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

The satellite presentation of Lowell has improved significantly
over the past 12 to 24 hours.  The cyclone consists of a large
central area of very cold cloud tops with an impressive curved band
extending out towards the southwest quadrant.  The latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO range from 55-65 kt,
and the latest objective intensity estimates range from 60 to 70
kt.  Based on improving structure observed on satellite imagery
over the past few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 70
kt.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or about 285/10 kt. A
mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the
primary steering influence during the next 4 days or so, resulting
in a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track
guidance is in relatively good agreement during this time period,
and generally shows Lowell continuing west-northwestward through
day 4.  In about 4 days, the cyclone should slow down, and may gain
some latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well north of the
Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge, possibly causing a
turn toward the northwest by day 5.  The latest NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous one, and lies close to the Google
DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) for the first 2-3 days, and is north
of the GDMI and HCCA for the 3 to 5 day portion of the forecast.
 
Environmental conditions are ripe for Lowell to intensify rapidly 
over the next day or two.  Now that the core is well-formed, Lowell 
should be able to take advantage of the weak vertical wind shear and 
warm sea-surface temperatures.  The HAFS and HWRF models show Lowell 
becoming a major hurricane within the next 24 to 36 hours, and the 
NHC intensity forecast follows suit.  The SHIPS DTOPS has about a 75 
percent chance of 45 kt strengthening over the next 36 hours, and 
the NHC forecast shows 40 kt of strengthening during that time.  The 
new NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening 
during the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the peak intensity 
has been increased slightly to 110 kt.  The new NHC intensity 
forecast lies between the middle and upper end of the intensity 
guidance suite, and is in between the intensity consensus (IVCN) and 
the HCCA.  Ocean waters should remain warm and vertical wind shear 
is forecast to remain low through day 5, so the NHC forecast holds 
Lowell at major hurricane strength through day 5.


Key Messages:
 
1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely 
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 13.4N 149.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 13.6N 150.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 13.7N 152.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 14.0N 154.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 14.3N 156.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 14.5N 158.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 14.7N 159.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 14.9N 162.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 15.6N 164.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen