Tropical Storm Moke

824 
WTPA43 PHFO 230239
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number  11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026
 
Moke has weakened slightly during the past several hours. The 
persistent deep convection that had been located over and north of 
the circulation overnight and through the morning hours has largely 
collapsed, with cloud tops warming noticeably. This deterioration 
appears to be due, at least in part, to persistent southwesterly 
vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Peak 700-mb flight-level 
winds from the reconnaissance aircraft have been around 43 kt, while 
a UAS measured peak winds of about 38 kt while sampling near the 
surface in the northeast quadrant. These data, along with the 
deteriorating satellite presentation, support lowering the initial 
intensity to 40 kt for this advisory.
 
Moke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of
280/12 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge
strengthens to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring the
center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island on
Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands
thereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the
NHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the
center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone
is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next
couple of days.
 
Moke appears to be near its peak intensity, if it has not already
reached it. Although vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease
somewhat during the next day, an increasingly dry and stable
surrounding environment should limit additional strengthening and
likely cause Moke to begin weakening on Sunday. Thereafter,
increasing vertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air
should result in a gradual weakening trend through early next week.
By around 96 h, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely
devoid of deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a
remnant low by Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near
the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to
impact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.
 
2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 15.3N 152.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 15.6N 153.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 15.9N 156.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 16.3N 158.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 16.8N 161.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 17.3N 163.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 18.0N 166.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 18.9N 172.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs