Tropical Storm Nolo

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WTPA42 PHFO 242056
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
Nolo continues to become better organized, with a ragged eye on 
satellite imagery and a primitive eyewall noted on the latest 
microwave pass.  The initial intensity is set to 60 kt, at the high 
end of the various estimates due to the improved organization on 
conventional satellite and microwave imagery.  An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm this 
afternoon for a more precise estimate.
 
The storm has been moving erratically during the day, but appears to 
finally be moving slowly northward.  There is no change the synoptic 
reasoning with a mid-latitude trough near the northwestern Hawaiian 
Islands causing Nolo to accelerate north-northeastward during the 
next day or so.  The trough should move away by the weekend and be 
replaced by a ridge, forcing a sharp westward turn on Saturday.  
The northward trend during the last couple of model cycles has 
stopped and is actually trending southward, led by the ECMWF model.  
The new forecast is a touch south of the last one, but really all 
these track changes are quite small.  This remains an uncertain 
forecast with some model ensemble tracks still over the Big Island, 
though most are south.  This forecast necessitates a Tropical Storm 
Warning for the Big Island, and a closer track could substantially 
increase the threat of damaging winds, particularly over higher 
terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas downwind of the ridges.

Rapid intensification is expected during the next day or so now 
that an inner core has formed, combined with warm warm SSTs, low 
shear and high mid-level moisture.  Nolo is likely to become a 
hurricane by tonight and reach major hurricane strength as it nears 
the Big Island on Saturday.  The new forecast is similar to the 
previous one for the first few days, close to the HCCA aid.  At long 
range, vertical wind shear is forecast to cause Nolo to weaken, and 
the NHC intensity prediction is lowered at that time. 
 
Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to pass near or just south of the Big Island of 
Hawaii on Saturday as a major hurricane.  Tropical storm conditions 
are expected to begin on the Big Island Friday night with 
hurricane conditions possible on Saturday, particularly in areas of 
steep terrain.  Residents should follow advice given by local 
officials, including evacuating if told to do so. 

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and 
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in 
both coverage and intensity today and Friday. Periods of heavy rain 
are expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the 
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are 
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island 
and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are 
expected, with isolated flooding possible.  

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the 
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where 
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.  
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest 
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans 
in place. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 14.9N 156.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 15.4N 156.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 16.4N 155.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.2N 155.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 17.7N 156.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 17.8N 157.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 17.8N 159.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 22.5N 165.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake