Tropical Storm Lala

000
WTPA42 PHFO 162055
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2026

The satellite presentation of Lala is highlighted by a large, curved 
convective band that extends over the northern and eastern sides of 
the storm. A small area of central convection obscures the low-level 
center, and a large dry slot wraps around the southern and eastern 
portions of the circulation. Objective and subjective satellite 
intensity estimates have continued to decrease this morning, and the 
initial intensity is set at 55 kt, in best agreement with recent 
D-MINT and D-PRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS.

After moving northwestward for much of the morning, recent radar 
fixes indicate Lala has sped up and begun its westward turn. A 
subtropical ridge over the central Pacific should keep Lala moving 
westward during the next couple of days. The track forecast for days 
3-5 remains challenging. There is slightly better agreement among 
the track guidance this cycle on the storm turning northwestward 
later in the period as an upper-level trough induces a weakness in 
the subtropical ridge. However, there is still a bifurcation of GFS 
and Google Deep Mind ensemble solutions, with some members 
continuing westward across the International Date Line. With the 
overall track envelope shifting eastward this cycle, the updated NHC 
track forecast lies to the right of the previous one at most 
forecast times. This adjustment is in the direction of the latest 
multi-model consensus aids and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.

Given Lala's disorganized structure, its proximity to the Hawaiian 
Islands, and the drier environment surrounding the storm, little 
change in strength is expected during the next 24 h. Once Lala pulls 
away from Hawaii, warm SSTs along the forecast track could allow for 
some reintensification. However, moderate west-northwesterly shear 
and continued dry air in the environment could temper the amount 
of strengthening that occurs. The NHC intensity forecast has been 
nudged upward in the 36-72 h period and shows Lala becoming a 
hurricane again by midweek. The forecast still lies below the 
intensity consensus (IVCN), which is higher due to the stronger 
hurricane regional model solutions.  
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical-storm-force winds, accompanied by gusts to near 
hurricane strength, will persist over Maui County, Oahu, and Kauai 
County today. The strongest winds will occur over areas of higher 
terrain. 
 
2. Rain will continue to taper off across the Big Island and Maui 
this afternoon, however additional areas of flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and the 
potential for flooding and mudslides from Lala will continue across 
the rest of the island chain through later tonight. 
 
3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions 
of the Hawaiian Islands today. Surf is building along east-facing 
shores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala 
passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized
coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including 
flooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be 
sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, 
and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 20.9N 160.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 21.1N 161.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 21.2N 163.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 21.1N 165.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 21.0N 167.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 21.3N 169.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 21.9N 171.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 23.5N 174.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 25.0N 176.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart