Tropical Storm Lala

293 
WTPA42 PHFO 142035
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026

Lala is gradually becoming better organized.  Satellite images show 
that the circulation appears less elongated and deep convection has 
increased some near the center.  Despite the improved appearance, 
the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that Lala has not 
strengthened yet. A very recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds 
around 40 kt north of the center, which is near most of the 
objective and subjective satellite estimates.  The initial intensity 
is held at a possibly generous 50 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force 
Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Lala later today, and the 
data they collect will be helpful to assess the storm's structure 
and intensity.
 
Lala is moving a little faster to the west-northwest at 12 kt, and 
this general motion is expected to persist during the next few days 
as a mid-level high pressure system remains anchored north of the 
Hawaiian Islands.  When Lala is near the Big Island, short-term 
deviations in the track are also likely due to local terrain 
interactions, as depicted in many of the models.  In fact, the model 
trends and latest guidance now support a landfall on the Big Island 
on Saturday.  After Lala passes the Big Island, a continued 
west-northwestward track south of the remainder of the islands is 
expected Saturday night and Sunday.  The NHC track forecast is 
mostly unchanged from the previous one, and is based on a blend of 
the latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, which have been 
performing quite well for this storm.
 
Steady strengthening is expected during the next day or so since the 
storm appears to be consolidating while environmental conditions 
remain generally favorable.  Lala is expected to become a category 1 
hurricane when it reaches the Big Island.  Once it interacts with 
land, Lala is forecast to weaken back to a tropical storm and an 
increase in shear, associated with an upper-level low, could also 
contribute to weakening later in the weekend. Re-strengthening is 
forecast early next week after Lala pulls away from the main 
Hawaiian Islands.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to 
the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the 
guidance envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of 
Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of 
higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion today 
before tropical-storm-force winds begin. 
 
2. Heavy rainfall will reach the Big Island later today, and spread 
westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are
expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed
windward and southern shores. This heavy surf may cause localized 
coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 17.2N 150.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.8N 152.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 18.4N 154.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 19.4N 156.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 20.2N 159.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 20.6N 162.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 20.9N 164.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 21.5N 168.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 22.6N 171.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pierce