Hurricane Nolo

000
WTPA42 PHFO 262049
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
Nolo still appears to be struggling with intrusions of dry mid-level 
air. After the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported the eyewall was 
closed earlier this morning, recent vortex messages and radar images 
from South Point (PHWA) show the eyewall is once again open to the 
north. In addition, the minimum central pressure has risen slightly 
to 977 mb, and the peak 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the 
aircraft was 83 kt in the northwest quadrant. Based on these 
developments, the initial intensity is adjusted to 80 kt.
 
Recent aircraft and radar fixes indicate the hurricane is now slowly 
moving just south of due west (260/4 kt). A faster westward motion 
away from the Big Island of Hawaii is expected during the next day 
or so as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hawaii. An 
upper-level trough currently to the northwest of the Hawaiian 
Islands is expected to amplify early next week, which should cause 
Nolo to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and 
Tuesday. The models agree that Nolo will be clear of the main 
Hawaiian Islands by the time it makes this turn. On day 5, Nolo is 
forecast to resume a westward motion along the southern extent of a 
building ridge over the central Pacific. This track forecast is 
similar to but slightly faster than the previous prediction, 
generally falling between the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Nolo is moving westward toward a pocket of higher ocean heat content 
southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and the vertical wind shear is 
forecast to weaken during the next 24-36 h. If the hurricane can 
solidify a more resilient inner core, several skillful models 
(including Google DeepMind, HAFS-A/B, and HCCA) suggest that Nolo 
could intensify into a major hurricane on Sunday or Monday. An 
alternate scenario is that continued dry air intrusions cause Nolo 
to miss its window before increasingly southwesterly shear beyond 48 
h induces a weakening trend. For now, the NHC intensity forecast 
continues to favor the stronger GDMI and HCCA solutions, which both 
have performed well for this event so far. Then, steady weakening 
is anticipated during the 60-120 h forecast period, generally 
following a blend of the HCCA and IVCN aids. 

Now that Nolo is moving away from the Big Island of Hawaii, the 
Hurricane Watch has been discontinued, but the Tropical Storm 
Warning remains in effect for Hawaii County. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Nolo has begun to move westward away from the Big Island of 
Hawaii, where tropical storm conditions are occurring and will 
continue into tonight, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big 
Island and eastern Maui through the weekend. Significant, 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in 
areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of 
the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser 
rainfall totals are expected.  
 
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline through the weekend.
 
4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where 
tropical-storm-force gusts are occurring in areas of steep terrain. 
Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands 
through the weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 16.7N 156.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 16.7N 157.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 16.8N 158.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 17.2N 160.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 18.4N 162.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 20.2N 163.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 21.9N 164.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 23.2N 166.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 23.0N 168.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart