Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040331
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- 
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation 
developing across Central America starting today and lasting 
through Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across 
southern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and southern 
Nicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through
Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash 
flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather 
agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction 
Center for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 11N82W to low pres 
near 08N90.5W 1009 mb to 04.5N94W to 08N115W to 04.5N127W to low
pres near 08N135.5W 1009 mb to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered to 
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 
00N to 12N E of 96W, and from 02S to 13N between between 96W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are present on both sides of
Baja California as high pressure builds southward toward the
region. Seas in the Gulf of California are 3 to 5 ft, with 5 to 7
ft in the offshore waters west of the peninsula. Elsewhere, 
across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle winds prevail, with 
moderate seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure W of Baja California will 
maintain a ridge across the region, supporting moderate to fresh 
NW winds over the Gulf of California and Baja Surf waters through
tonight, and across the Baja Norte waters through Wed night. 
Large NW swell will build across the regional waters today and 
tonight, impacting the Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of
large NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning early Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the monsoon trough near 
08N90.5W. A broad zone of moderate to fresh S to SW winds has 
developed from the equator to the trough between 84W and 94W, 
and is producing scattered to numerous moderate to strong 
convection from 00N to 12N E of 96W, impacting the near and 
offshore waters of Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica, as well as the 
waters of Panama and Colombia. Seas across the area are generally
5 to 8 ft in SW swell, and locally higher near thunderstorms. 
Moderate or weaker winds are north of the monsoon trough, with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft, highest downstream of Papagayo.

For the forecast, low pressure along the monsoon trough near 
08N90.5W will gradually drift northeastward and slowly weaken 
through the end of the week, with associated winds and seas 
slowly abating. Very active showers and thunderstorms are 
expected across the area for the next few days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front extends from 30N125W to 27N135W. S of the 
high, between 23N and the monsoon trough, fresh trades prevail W 
of 120W. Along the monsoon trough at 08N137W, a 1009 mb low 
center is helping to producing fresh to locally strong E winds 
well to its north, extending to 22N, and scattered thunderstorms 
within 240 nm NW of the low. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
prevail. Large NW swell is propagating into the region, with seas
of 9 to 13 ft now NW of the front, and seas to 8 ft and higher 
now extending south to 10N and W of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate 
seas in mixed NW and SW swell prevail.

For the forecast, the front dissipate tonight. The associated NW
swell will continue spreading through the region, bringing rough
to very rough seas N of 08N and W of 115W through Wed night, 
before being reinforced by new swell starting early Thu. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual 
development of the aforementioned low pressure near 08N137W, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the latter 
portions of this week as it moves westward to west- northwestward
around 10 kt, out of the Eastern Pacific basin, and into the 
Central Pacific basin W of 140W. There is a low chance of 
tropical formation of this system over the next 48 hours and high
chance over the next 7 days. Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat 
merging NW and SE swell may produce 8-9 ft seas close to the 
equator. 

$$
Konarik