Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021530
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.8N 132.8W at 02/1500 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with
gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous moderate 
to scattered strong convection is noted from 17N-22N between 
131W-135W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected 
over the next few days. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in 
intensity are possible today, followed by slow weakening over the
next several days. However, Karina is likely to remain a 
powerful hurricane the next couple of days.

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 17.1N 111.7W at 02/1500
UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt.  Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate 
to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N-21N between
105W-114W. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by 
tonight, and that motion should continue through the weekend. 
Some strengthening is forecast through Friday, and Marie is 
likely to become a hurricane later today. A gradual weakening 
trend is expected over the weekend. Swells generated by Marie 
will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the 
Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely 
spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 90W, extending across Guatemala to 07N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is present from 03N to 16N between 87W and 97W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W and
extends to 11N108W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
north of 07N east of 91W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
is also occurring from 03N-11N west of 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Tropical Storm Marie centered southwest of Mexico.

Aside from Marie, winds are NW fresh offshore of Baja California
Norte with seas 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft over Pacific
waters and 1-4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie is near 17.1N 111.7W at 8
AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 992 mb. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 112.8W
this evening, move to 18.7N 114.2W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.8W Thu
evening, 20.1N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W Fri evening, and
21.3N 119.8W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity 
as it moves to 22.5N 122.2W early Sun. Elsewhere, a tighter 
pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong S to SE winds in
the N Gulf of California through Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E winds with seas 5-6 ft are occurring today over the Gulf
of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with
seas 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of
07N east of 91W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central 
America will sustain fresh to locally strong E winds over the 
Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or 
lighter winds will prevail across forecast waters. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and 
Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico.

Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm 
Marie, moderate or weaker winds dominate the tropical NE
Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell from
the southwest is noted well west of the Galapagos Islands 
producing seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast, Karina will move to 19.2N 134.2W this 
evening, 19.7N 136.2W Thu morning, 20.1N 138.2W Thu evening, 
20.5N 140.0W Fri morning, 21.0N 141.7W Fri evening, and 21.7N 
143.1W Sat morning. Karina will weaken to a tropical storm over 
23.6N 145.1W early Sun. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane 
near 17.8N 112.8W this evening, move to 18.7N 114.2W Thu morning,
19.4N 115.8W Thu evening, 20.1N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W
Fri evening, and 21.3N 119.8W Sat morning. Marie will change 
little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 122.2W early Sun. 

Elsewhere, the cross equatorial SW swell will diminish below 8 ft
by Thu. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well 
offshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. Gradual 
development is possible early next week as the system moves west-
northwestward around 10 kt, and is likely to remain well 
offshore of Mexico. Chance of tropical cyclone formation is
low...20 percent...through 7 days. 

$$
Landsea