Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

016 
AXNT20 KNHC 192219
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed May 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 60W, approaching the 
Windward Islands S of 16N, and is moving W near 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted mainly behind the wave, S of 09N 
between 50W and 58W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 10N14W, then runs southwestward to 05.5N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05.5N20W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N to 06N between 10W 
and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends westward 
into the northern Gulf states, to eastern Texas. The resultant 
pressure gradient across the basin is forcing moderate to fresh 
E to E-SE winds and moderate seas across all but the Florida
coastal waters, but also includes the Florida Straits. Peak seas
are to 7 ft across the offshore waters of south Texas and NE
Mexico. Generally fair weather conditions dominate the basin, 
although some weakening thunderstorms are have shifted westward
off of southwest and central Florida and into the local coastal
waters.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United 
States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across the
Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf, pulsing to 
strong each evening through Wed night offshore of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Beginning on Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and 
tranquil marine conditions should prevail through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW 
Caribbean, as the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon 
trough reaches across the basin along 10N. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are also ongoing across the Windward Passage as 
well as the southern coasts and adjacent waters of Cuba. 
The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high near Bermuda and the
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades across the central 
to SW Caribbean, where seas are 8-12 ft, as indicated by recent
satellite altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate 
seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. 
The remainder of the NW Caribbean is seeing gentle to moderate 
trades and 3-5 ft seas. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to 
strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several 
days. Fresh to strong trades will also occur over the Gulf of 
Honduras today and tonight before weakening tomorrow. Large E to SE
swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight before 
subsiding tomorrow. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trades over 
the Gulf of Honduras are likely to return again starting on Sat 
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection NE of the Bahamas to 69W and across
the southern Bahamas are associated with a weak surface trough 
and upper level low centered near 28.5N74W. To the east, a cold 
front enters the discussion waters near 31N39W and extends to 
29N63W. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate N 
to NE winds north the front, and moderate to fresh SW winds south 
of the front to 29N. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge dominates, 
resulting in fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas 
prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 23N, where seas are 7 
to 10 ft, as verified by recent satellite altimeter data. Areas N 
of 23N and away from any aforementioned features are seeing gentle
to moderate trades and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. Moderate to fresh 
NE trades and moderate seas prevail across most of the area 
between 20W and 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level low will continue to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms along a surface 
trough to the east of the Bahamas through Thu. SE winds will pulse
fresh to strong north of Hispaniola during the afternoon and
evening hours for the next several days. Elsewhere, surface 
ridging north of our waters should cause winds and seas to remain 
quiescent through the weekend.

$$
Stripling