Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211025
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Bertha is near 28.7N 86.4W, or about 110 nm S of 
Panama City, Florida at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 
4 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 kt with gusts 
to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Peak seas 
are to 12 ft in the SE quadrant. Bertha remains a sheared system
as observed on satellite imagery, with the low-level center mostly 
evident north of deep convective activity. This convective
activity consists of the numerous moderate to strong type 
intensity from 25N to 28N between 84W and 88W, and from 25N to 29N
between 88W and 92W. Bertha is forecast to maintain a slow 
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected today 
followed by a turn westward by the middle part of this week. On 
the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern 
Gulf coast during the next several days. Bertha is expected to 
produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher 
totals around 6 inches through Thu along the Gulf Coast and 
adjacent inland locations from western Florida into southern 
Louisiana, including southern portions of Alabama and Mississippi.
This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in 
urban areas. Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of 
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your 
local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde 
Islands with axis along 26W from 08N to 20N moving westward
near 10 kt. No significant deep convection is presently noted
near the wave as it is surrounded by a rather dry and stable 
environment.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 09N
to 23N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 20N to
23N, and near its southern portion from 09N to 10N between 42W and
45W.

A tropical wave is over the southwestern Caribbean along 82W 
south of 18N. It is moving westward at an estimated speeds of 
about 15t kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm 
east of the wave from 11N to 12N. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 15N west of 76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N24W and 
to 09N35W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N35W to 07N50W 
and to inland South America at 07N60W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 14N to 18N between the coast of Africa 
and 20W, also within 120 nm south of the trough between 30W-35W,
within 60 nm north of the trough between 21W-24W and within 30 nm
of the trough between 35W-39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Bertha located in the NE Gulf.

Aside from Tropical Storm Bertha, which is located over the NE 
Gulf, roughly about 110 nm S of Panama City, Florida and is the 
main feature over the basin, weak high pressure of 1014 mb is 
centered over the western Gulf at near 24N92W. The related 
gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds W of 90W and over 
the southeastern Gulf waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bertha will move to near 29.0N 
86.8W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 
kt, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 29.4N 87.6W late 
tonight, to near 29.5N 88.7W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained 
winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt and inland to near 29.3N 90.5W late Wed 
night. Bertha is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near 
29.3N 92.2W Thu afternoon, move to near 29.6N 94.2W late Thu night
and become a remnant low as it moves to near 30.4N 96.5W late Fri
night. Otherwise, the weak high pressure over the western Gulf 
will not be evident by midweek. After midweek, Atlantic high 
pressure will extend westward to the central Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Azores-Bermuda High and 
relatively lower pressure over NW Colombia is resulting in mainly 
moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the central,
southwest and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.  
Moderate to fresh easterlies are also ongoing in the Gulf of
Honduras. Offshore Colombia winds are locally strong and seas
rough to 9 ft. Except for this part of the sea, the central and 
SW basin have moderate seas while slight seas dominate both the E 
and NW Caribbean regions. Aside from the convection associated 
with the tropical wave, clusters of scattered moderate convection
are present over the offshores between Colombia and Panama, 
associated with the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian 
low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas
across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. 
During the same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are 
expected in the Windward Passage, mainly at night. Pulsing winds 
reaching fresh speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through
Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas 
will prevail elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is located over the central Atlantic along a 
position from near 27N57W to 22N59W and to 16N61W. Another surface 
trough is to its NE from 31N51W to 24N55W. satellite imagery shows 
increasing scattered moderate convection over the waters from 22N
to 29N between 53W and 62W, and 25N to 28N between 43W and 53W.
Overnight satellite scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh northeast winds between 56W and 64W. The scatterometer data
also indicates fresh trades  over the adjacent waters of 
Hispaniola. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the 
influence of the Azores-Bermuda High, which is supporting moderate
to fresh NE winds over the E waters E of 35W with locally strong 
winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. 
Moderate to fresh southerly flow is offshore central and NE 
Florida due to the gradient of pressure between the ridge and 
Tropical Storm Bertha, located in the NE Gulf of America. Seas are
in the moderate range between 20W and 67W and mainly slight W of 
67W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will move westward reaching near 70W by Wed afternoon and to near
75W by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally 
strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including 
approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. 
Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast 
elsewhere E of the Bahamas through Fri, except S of 23N E of about
77W where mostly fresh trades are expected through Sat night. 

$$
Aguirre