Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 300333
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0325 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic
along 19W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total 
precipitable water and wave guidance data. The wave is moving 
westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south 
of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 03N to 09N and between 23W and 40W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 66W, south 
of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is present south of 15N and between 55W and 66W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W, south 
of 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. No convection is noted at 
this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 09N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N24W to 07N34W and continues from 07N37W to
05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 09N
and east of 19W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N to
09N and between 40W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure in the NE Gulf and
lower pressures in Mexico support fresh to locally strong NE-E
winds and moderate seas south of 23N and between 88W and 94W.
Gentle to moderate E-SE winds and slight to moderate seas are
found in the remainder of the western Gulf (west of 90W).
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region. 
Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated
with a surface trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the
western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period.
Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except 
for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh
to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central 
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft. The strongest winds 
and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. 

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found across the
Greater Antilles and nearby waters mainly due to diurnal heating.
Similar convection is present in the SE Caribbean and off NE
Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin 
combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, 
reaching near-gale force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of 
Venezuela at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across 
the remainder of the basin during the next several days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The shower and thunderstorms activity north of the Leeward Islands
has mostly dissipated. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to 
locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 22N and 
east of 30W. 

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly 
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 20N and east of 
24W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed winds up to 32 
kt between the water passages in the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, while most of the basin will
experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of 
Hispaniola will freshen in the late afternoons and early evenings 
for the next several days. A weak cold front located off of the SE
United States coast will extend from 31N72W to the central 
Florida peninsula by Tue morning. The front is anticipated to 
dissipate on Wed while the low pressure area N of the region 
associated with the front appear to have only a marginally 
favorable environment for some tropical development as the system 
drifts southward and then westward later this week. Currently, the
forecast keeps the low just N of 30N through Wed.

$$
Delgado