Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 302232
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jul 01 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is along 23W and extends from the Cabo Verde Islands 
southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 04.5N to 09.5N between 19W and 28W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 40W, south of
16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is observed from 04.5N to 10N and between 30W and 42W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean along 70W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over 
Venezuelan coastal waters S of 13N between 63W and 70W, while
scattered moderate to strong convection is along coastal zones of
eastern Venezuela to far eastern Colombia.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean has its axis near 83W, moving
westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted over nearby waters at 
this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20.5N16W and 
continues southwestward to 08.5N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N25W
to 06.5N37W, where it is broken by a tropical wave, then resumes 
from 07N40W to the coast of Brazil near 06N57W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and within 200 nm 
of the ITCZ between 20W and 59W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

1020 mb high pressure is centered over south central Mississippi
and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward across the Gulf
basin and into the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient across the
area favors moderate or weaker E-SE to SE winds across the 
western half of the Gulf and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas
basin-wide are slight, at 4 ft or less. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are weakening across the SW Gulf along a
westward moving surface trough, and are shifting offshore of the
Florida Panhandle and central Florida into the local coastal
waters. 

For the forecast, the ridge across the basin will dominate the 
Gulf region through the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula 
nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated with a 
surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail 
across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds
are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds
in the NE Gulf. A surface trough across N Florida will drift SW
across the NE Gulf this evening and tonight, with showers and 
thunderstorms expected to shift SW along it through around 
midnight, before dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends from the NE Atlantic
southwestward to near 70W and east of the Bahamas, while high
pressure across the Gulf of America extends southeastward to the
NW Caribbean. The associated pressure gradient continues to force
fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central 
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft, with the strongest 
winds and highest seas found offshore of NW Colombia. Moderate to
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern
Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection across the 
Gulf of Honduras is shifting westward and inland. 

For the forecast, the Azores High north of the basin combined 
with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds 
over the central Caribbean through Sat night, except offshore 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are likely to 
reach near gale-force at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh 
trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or 
weaker winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean. Moderate winds
across the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh each late
afternoon through evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front has stalled from near Bermuda southwestward
across the NE Florida offshore waters then westward across N
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have develop late
this afternoon along and south of the front to 29N, between 50W  
and 73W, and over much of north and central Florida. A surface 
trough is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the waters from the Turks and Caicos northeastward into the open 
Atlantic near 26N66W. The Azores High extends a broad ridge 
elsewhere southwestward across the subtropical waters, to this 
surface trough near 70W. This pattern is supporting moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft across much of the 
waters W of 25W. East of 25W, a tighter pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to 
strong NE winds and rough seas 8 to 10 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough is moving across 
the NW waters, and extends from 30N70W to central Florida near
Cape Canaveral. The trough will first drift southward trough Wed 
morning, then begin moving westward late Wed into Thu. Under this 
weather pattern, moderate or weaker winds are expected, except for
moderate to fresh winds offshore Hispaniola mainly late in the 
afternoons into the early evening hours. 

$$
Stripling