Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141007
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 37W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward 
near 10 kt. A tight gradient between the wave and high pressure to
its north is producing fresh to strong easterly winds across the
northern half of the wave. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft. 
Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

A tropical wave is near 54W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward at 
10 to 15 kt. No convection is present at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 08N19W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to 06N58W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 05N to 11N between 26W and 34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high is centered near 30N86W.  Recent scatterometer 
data show gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the 
eastern half of the Gulf S of 28N, and east to southeast winds of 
the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are in the range of 1 to 
5 ft. Fair skies prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the northeast Gulf will keep E to 
SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas 
coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front 
is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, and reach from 
southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong 
to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, 
with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and 
Coatzacoalcos late Fri night into Sun.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle-level low is supporting scattered showers in the lee 
side of Cuba adjacent waters, and in the Gulf of Honduras while an
upper-level low over the eastern half of the Caribbean is 
supporting scattered showers and tstms over Hispaniola and its 
adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage and the Mona 
Passage. A recent scatterometer pass show fresh to strong ESE 
winds S of Haiti and in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker, with seas fluctuating between 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail
across the eastern half of the basin today, associated with an 
upper-level low. Fresh E to SE winds will persist north of 13N 
south of Jamaica through today, north of broad low pressure over 
the southwest Caribbean. Trade winds will increase along with 
building seas over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure 
builds over the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging anchored by a 1019 mb in North Carolina, is  
building over the SW N Atlantic waters just N of the Bahamas. Scattered
showers prevail along a trough that extends from 28N72W to 
24N80W. To the east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N66W. The 
remainder subtropical central and eastern Atlantic is under the 
influence of the Azores High, which is supporting moderate to 
fresh NE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW 
Africa and 26W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate to slight seas dominate elsewhere N of 20N and 
W of 26W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move southward 
into the waters east of 75W today, then stall and dissipate along 
29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters 
off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, 
and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to 
near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. 

$$
ERA