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NHC

Hurricane Simon Forecast Advisory

Advisory Number: 19
0300 UTC MON OCT 12 2026

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 120246
TCMEP5

HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
0300 UTC MON OCT 12 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.0W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.0W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.8N 107.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.4N 106.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 105.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 106.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS/CANGIALOSI

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